Natural gas risks are largely to the upside and gas markets will likely be tight for the remainder of the year. We’ve said for a while that Henry Hub prices may be undervalued and the forward strip is starting to reflect that optimism: HH futures at this writing exceed $3/MMBtu from July 2021 – March 2022. While noting our standard disclaimer that a new, dangerous COVID variant is possible, albeit unlikely, we believe that optimism about natural gas markets is warranted for the medium term. Natural gas markets will likely remain tight for at least the next year.

A Rough 2020

Before we dive into our perspective on future natural gas demand, let’s first ruminate a bit on 2020. The year from hell was terrible for natural gas markets which saw a decline in total domestic consumption from about ~85.2 Bcf/d in 2019 to ~83.3 Bcf/d in 2020. Residential, commercial and industrial consumption fell by 1 Bcf/d, 1 Bcf/d, and 0.5 Bcf/d, respectively. While weather and extreme weather affect consumption patterns, the analyst consensus is that the demand drop was largely caused by COVID. On the positive side, however, natural gas demand for electric power consumers rose by 0.7 Bcf/d. Export capacity for pipeline and LNG exports also expanded significantly, as we’ll discuss later.

Strong Natural Gas Demand

We think 2021 could be an outstanding year for natural gas. Vaccines are rapidly returning the US economy to normal conditions: US 2021 annual GDP growth will probably exceed 5.0%. If residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demand rebound to 2019 levels (which will be difficult but not impossible) U.S. natural gas consumption will rise by about 2.5 Bcf/d.

Total U.S. natural gas demand is not just determined by domestic consumption but also by exports. LNG and pipeline exports will almost surely rise well above 2020 levels. LNG exports in 2020 stood at about 6.5 Bcf/d; pipeline exports (to both Mexico and Canada) reached nearly 7.9 Bcf/d. We predict these trends will continue: pipeline exports to Mexico and LNG exports have stood at all-time highs in recent weeks. While there is some uncertainty surrounding hurricane season, U.S. LNG exporters will very likely enjoy strongly positive netbacks for at least the remainder of 2021; export terminals will run at 100% utilization for the remainder of the year; and the U.S. LNG complex could add about 0.8-1.6 Bcf/d in capacity by the end of the year, depending on how quickly Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass can startup. Higher LNG and pipeline exports alone will likely add about 5-6 Bcf/d in demand from 2020 levels.

Fuel-on-fuel competition

Natural Gas for electric power use is more difficult to predict. Last year it stood at 31.7 Bcf/d, up slightly from 31 Bcf/d in 2019. Will gas volumes for power burn continue to grow? We’re more skeptical: gas will compete with coal and, increasingly, renewables for the rest of the year. 

We’ve written extensively about how coal is back, but perhaps not for long. Coal production and coal’s share of electricity generation will likely continue to rebound, at least in 2021. Coal is natural gas’ primary competitor for baseload summer and winter electricity demand. We therefore suspect that competition for baseload supply will be fierce in 2021 and 2022: coal will likely eat into natural gas’ share at the margins.

Renewables will also continue to reduce natural gas power sector consumption throughout 2021, as the EIA projects that around 32 GW of solar, wind, and batteries will be deployed in the U.S. this year. Renewable penetration will vary by locality: ERCOT alone is expected to deploy about 12 GW of utility-scale renewables capacity to the grid before August. Renewables tend to run at relatively low capacity factors, however, limiting their share of total electricity generation until more and better battery storage comes online.

Natural gas for power generation will face very strong competition in 2021 and 2022 from other fuel sources. Natural gas will likely prevail over coal in the medium-term as consumers, businesses, and policymakers reject coal, the dirtiest baseload power source. Widespread adoption of a carbon price could staunch coal’s 2021 and 2022 comeback, but we believe these measures won’t be adopted nationwide or even in many states. Renewables will also eat into natural gas’ share of electricity generation, particularly in solar-rich markets such as CAISO, ERCOT, and the southwest United States. While natural gas’ share of electricity power generation might not decline as much as the EIA projects, we also believe natural gas’ share of the U.S. fuel mix will fall in 2021 and 2022.

Supply: Domestic and International

Dry gas production will very likely rise this year on higher domestic production and imports. Domestic dry natural gas production stood at 93 Bcf/d in 2019 then fell to 91.6 Bcf/d in 2020 on declining rig counts. On the other hand, rising gas-to-oil ratios (GOR) in the Permian and other basins limited the slide in volumes. In 2021, rig counts are clearly rising but dry production volumes have remained steady at around 92 Bcf/d. While dry gas production will likely grow throughout 2021, we will be very surprised if 2021 annual production reaches 100 Bcf/d: the US could set an annual dry gas production record this year but likely won’t exceed 95 Bcf/d. Pipeline gas imports from Canada could grow by ~1.5 – 2.5 Bcf/d.

Drawdowns are likely; hurricanes, temps, and variants are big unknowns

We expect U.S. annual natural gas demand to grow by about 6-9 Bcf/d in 2021 from previous year levels subject to the timing of new LNG trains; supply growth will probably only total around 5-7 Bcf/d. We therefore expect to see significant inventory drawdowns, particularly later in the year. While inventories are well above their same-period 2019 levels, the gap is already narrowing. The market will likely therefore balance in the form of higher prices: Henry Hub will likely remain above $3/MMBtu for at least the remainder of the year, and most of the risks are to the upside. At the same time, uncertainties remain: COVID variants could completely upend all our assumptions, while hurricanes and temperatures create significant unknowns. Still, these risks appear manageable. Strong post-COVID demand will likely power Henry Hub spot prices above $3/MMBtu for at least the remainder of the year.