Will the 2021-22 heating season be a challenging year for propane? To be more specific, will it be a challenging year for U.S. propane exports? For the first time in many years, we are seeing lack of consensus amongst the analyst community and market pundits, and for good reasons. Since 2010, U.S. propane supply has grown at a staggering rate year-on-year, with U.S. propane supplies doubling in that period. Most analysts (including us), assumed that propane supply would increase on capital inflow in the upstream sector and billions of dollars of investments in the midstream sector – from processing plant to LPG export terminals. On the demand side, analysts assumed that all propane would be consumed by the ever-expanding economies in Far East and South East Asia. For the first time in recent memory, however, the 2021-22 season seems different. Exports could face pressure this season and may not show year-over-year growth.

While we have a few weeks remaining in propane heating season, it is unlikely that a major weather event will disrupt U.S. propane inventories. Post-Winter Storm Uri, U.S. Gulf Coast propane inventories are close to 5-yr lows as we approach the shoulder/summer injection season.

Besides dislocations from Winter Storm Uri, U.S. propane exports have consistently ranged between 1.0 – 1.3 Million BPD over the last year, with some extraordinarily strong months in 4Q2020, when exports exceeded 1.6 Million BPD. In fact, 4Q2020 was the strongest quarter ever for U.S. propane exports, averaging more than 1.4 Million BPD. Tightness in propane markets has resulted in strong prices, with Mont Belvieu propane’s ratio to crude price trading significantly above the 5-yr average (65% vs 5-yr average of less than 50%). Consequently, export arbs have retreated and are just holding above 5-6 cpg over Mont Belvieu – and this is despite a sharp drop in the VLGC freight market, as shipping rates for a USGC to Asia VLGC voyage have plunged from ~36 cpg in Dec/Jan 2020 to just above 10 cpg.  

We believe Asian economies will continue to increase their appetite for more imported propane, but this is not guaranteed. International propane demand for cooking in countries like India and Indonesia will take some time to come out of post-COVID-19 lockdown measures, and propane demand from Asian petrochemicals markets will depend on the relative economics of imported LPG vs naphtha – which continues to favor propane/LPG due to the rise in crude prices. So, while there are a few unknows, we believe, on balance, that there will be ample market to absorb any growth in U.S. exports in 2021-22. If OPEC+ continues with its production cut program, then it will only support more U.S. LPG exports.

This brings us to the last piece of the U.S. propane puzzle: supply from gas processing plants (we assume that propane from refineries and imports will remain flat at best). Based on EIA data, U.S propane supply (including extraction by gas processing) has remained relatively flat at or around 2.0 – 2.1 Million BPD since 3Q/4Q 2019 due to the lack of growth in crude oil and associated gas production. While propane from Permian may grow at a much slower rate, production data from Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Niobrara, and Bakken are not encouraging, and production is expected to decline through 2021. Overall, we believe that the biggest risk for the growth in U.S. exports lies on the expectation of supply – will there be enough supply to maintain exports at or around 1.3 Million BPD mark? For the very first time in many years, we cannot take propane supply for granted!

Assuming U.S. propane caps out at 2.2 Million BPD for the remainder of 2021, we believe that propane inventory prior to onset of the winter heating season would be well below normal levels (12-15 days of supply versus 28+ days of supply), just to maintain 1.3 Million BPD export levels – which is basically flat to 2020 levels. So, while U.S. LPG exports will increase in the summer due to increases in crude prices (and therefore the Asian propane-MOPJ naphtha price spread) and demand from Chinese PDH plants, exports during winter are not guaranteed.

We anticipate propane prices to strengthen in 3Q2021 as domestic buyers start focusing on filling stock levels in anticipation of domestic heating needs. The bottom line is that a bidding war for propane in the third quarter seems inevitable.