Winter is coming: COVID and Petroleum products demand

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Scientists have repeatedly warned that colder temperatures in fall and winter could lead to a surge in COVID cases. Initial evidence supports that theory: cases are rising in the United States (especially in many northern states), Canada, and Russia. If COVID cases surge in the winter as predicted, domestic and… Read more »

U.S. Ethane prices in for an uptick?

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Ethane prices at Mont Belvieu have been on a roller coaster this year- from the lows of 10 cpg in March 2020, to 25 cpg in August, and more recently back to just under 20 cpg. A similar but more pronounced trend can be observed in the ethane frac-spreads at… Read more »

US natural gas exports: will they balance Henry Hub?

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Henry Hub prices are in flux. In early Sept, spot prices traded around $2.50/MMBtu, an increase of nearly 80% over lows seen in late June. More surprisingly, the natural gas benchmark was trading about 13% higher than levels seen in the same prior-year period, despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the… Read more »

U.S. crude exports are just ok, for now

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While U.S. crude exports are increasingly important for the health of the oil and gas complex, they have come under pressure amid the COVID-19 coronavirus. In this article, we’ll describe why crude exports matter, and why they’re probably going to drift upwards in subsequent months. Exports and Production The story… Read more »

Propane is in for a tough time

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It’s been a tough Spring and Summer for U.S. propane markets. Netbacks from the international markets  have come under severe pressure due to COVID-19. While  prices bottomed out in March 2020, most benchmarks have still not recovered to year-ago levels, and export volume levels have only recently rebounded to year-ago… Read more »

Appalachian Basis: Pipeline Capacity Likely Sufficient

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The Appalachian basin is likely to have ample pipeline takeaway capacity for the foreseeable future. With abundant spare pipeline capacity, we expect that Appalachian benchmarks will continue to show a narrowing of basis relative to Henry Hub. Appalachia’s “basis blowouts” seen in 2015 and 2016 are probably a thing of… Read more »