U.S. LNG exports: a rough patch, or a bleak future?

June 20, 2020

These are tough times for U.S. LNG exporters and Global LNG markets in general. Natural gas inflows to U.S. export terminals serve as a proxy for exports, but stand at only 3.9 Bcf/d, down from 9 Bcf/d in late March. Obviously, LNG exports are buffeted by the COVID-19 demand shock – but the causes run deeper than that. LNG markets were oversupplied even before COVID-19, and the recession/depression has only amplified that imbalance. With the IEA projecting 75 bcm (~51 MTPA) of annual demand lost by 2025, we think it’s important to begin asking tough questions about U.S. LNG’s future. Have we seen the last of LNG FIDs in the U.S. for several years? Are U.S. LNG exports facing cyclical challenges that will pass in a few years, or are there structural barriers that will continue to persist for this decade?