Natural gas’ most important competitor for baseload demand, coal, is experiencing a recovery of sorts. U.S. coal production and consumption, along with electricity demand, are rising as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes. While the U.S. coal industry faces immense, probably insurmountable obstacles in the medium and long-terms, coal will continue to battle natural gas for market share in 2021.

Coal: the long view

The U.S. coal industry is winding down: it’s an open question whether or not it will even exist in a decade. Coal generation at utility scale facilities is down 55% since 2011, investors fled the sector even before ESG became a household name, it seems that a major coal company goes bankrupt every month, and coal is increasingly politically toxic. The long-term trajectory of the coal industry is pretty clear.