Over the past decade, the U.S. has become a leading ethane exporter, fueled by abundant supply, growing global demand for lighter petrochemical feedstocks, competitive pricing, and long-term customer contracts that enabled substantial investments in export infrastructure. As of September 2024, U.S. waterborne exports reached ~0.4 MMBPD, or 15% of domestic ethane production. In the next 12-18 months, a second wave of ethane export capacity and new Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) will drive further export growth. Key questions include: Is there enough ethane to sustain this growth? Will rising exports push prices above their long-standing sub-25 cpg range? And, which markets are driving the demand?

U.S. Ethane Supply Demand Balance

With rising wet gas production, U.S. ethane potential continues to grow, reaching around 4.0 MMBPD by 3Q 2024. Ethane potential refers to the theoretical volume that can be extracted, based on plant limitations. However, only 65% of this potential is actually recovered to meet gas quality specs, midstream contracts, and firm sales commitments, leaving about 35% unextracted in the natural gas stream or excluded from NGL recovery.