The first quarter of 2026 has reinforced something the market already knows but rarely states plainly: more supply does not mean easier access. Recent disruptions in the Middle East have kept pressure on LNG availability even as production continues to grow.

In Australia, cyclone-related outages temporarily disrupted LNG exports, tightening supply into Asia during peak seasonal demand. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran have raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East flows, which account for roughly 20% of global LNG supply via the Strait of Hormuz (with 17% of Qatar LNG rendered inoperable due to the conflict). Even short-lived disruptions have had outsized effects, reflecting how little uncommitted supply exists to absorb shocks. Both examples point to the same underlying issue: when something goes wrong, there is limited buffer. Supply is at historically elevated levels, yet the market remains tight. The issue is not production. It is who has the right to that gas, and under what terms.

Flexible/ Short-Term LNG

Most LNG is sold under long-term contracts, which limits how much is freely available at any given time. New export capacity continues to come online, but the majority of it is already contracted before first cargo. In 2024, only around one-third of global LNG trade moved on a spot or short-term basis. The rest was secured under long-term agreements, leaving a relatively thin slice of supply available to buyers without existing contracts.